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Round-Up # 1: The First 30-ish

Round-Up # 1: The First 30-ish

Our first round-up of the 2023-2024 season analyzes the first 30-ish days of the NHL regular season play from a team and player perspective. In this round-up:

  • Key Stats Summary
  • Spotlight: Top 5 Teams
  • Spotlight: Top 10 Players
  • Spotlight: Top 10 Goalies
  • Spotlight: Top Tough Guys
  • Winning Percentage

We close with some additional resources we've referenced in the round-up and you might find useful.


This summary view is updated daily and includes a sortable view of key percentage-based stats – such as Points Percentage, Shot Percentage, etc.

Notes

According to ESPN's Tim Kavanagh, "The Boston Bruins, New York Rangers and Vancouver Canucks are blowing their preseason point total over/unders out of the water thus far. The Edmonton Oilers, Minnesota Wild and Calgary Flames? Not so much." Visit ESPN's league power rankings for more info.

The Bruins are making good and early strides this season, on pace to have another solid season. Here's a preview of their next five games, including winning percentage advantages.

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For more details on Winning Percentage, see our recent article entitled "Can you use Winning Percentage to predict a Team Winning?"

For more daily reports, check out our Team, Player and Game Analyses page. All reports and analyses are updated daily!


Below are the Top 5 Teams across key percentage-based statistics – initial ranking is by Point Percentage. Each column in the table is sortable.

Notes

  • Boston is excelling on the penalty kill and save percentage, but lagging in shot and faceoff percentage.
  • New York are dominating on the face offs and power plays, but appear average on penalty kills, shots and save percentage.
  • LA are strong on the penalty kill and shots, but need to improve their power play and save percentage.
  • Vancouver has jumped compared to last season (38% increase in winning percentage) and are strong on the power play and shot percentage.
  • Vegas started strong, but are running a bit more average across these stats and the top five cohort.

Below are the top ten players by points. Included in this view is the Playmaker Score, a simple ratio of Assists to Goals.

Notes

  • Vancouver is well positioned with three players in the Top 10 Playmakers.
  • Hughes and Makar showing as two strong offensive defensemen with great playmaking skills.
  • Reinhart starting strong this season and is exceptionally balanced across goals and assists.

Below are the Top 10 Goalies (initial ranking by Save Percentage). Also included is the Goals Against Average (GAA).

Notes

  • In the wake of a shut-out, Lyon is proving to be one of the strongest goaltenders thus far this season.
  • Quick is a stand-out goaltender making the Rangers even stronger in the Top 5 cohort – back between the pipes 11/26 from an upper bod injury.
  • Hill is the third goaltender coming in below a 2.00 GAA, supporting the Golden Knights in their quest for another Cup-winning season.

Hockey isn't just about fancy goals; it's also about grit and toughness. Check out the Top Tough Guys (initial ranking by Penalties) below.

Notes

  • Xhekaj is proving to be a strong and balanced defenseman, scrappy in front of the net and not afraid to drop the gloves.
  • Wilson, the one you hate playing against but love it when he's on your team, shows his presence on the ice – leading in physicality and also putting some points in the board.
  • McTavish is one of the unsung heroes in this list. He's lighting up the map, with 10 goals and 10 assists, and is playing a balanced, physical game to boot.

We like Winning Percentage (Pythagorean version) as one type of predictive indicator for how likely a team is to win against their opponent. It's not an exact predictor, but Bill James was no slouch when it came to Sabermetrics so it's one measure we use.

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In the chart below, Actual WP (Winning Percentage) is a simple calculation of Wins/Games Played. Pythagorean WP is based on Goals For and Goals Against and has less "luck" built into it.

If you sort on the Pyth. WP column, you will get the most recent ranking of teams with the highest to lowest winning percentage.

Here are today's games, which show the advantage for winning percentage.

Theoretically, the lower the Margin, the closer the game should be.


Check out these resources for even more hockey stats, news and more!



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